All publications of ABHIMANYU SAXENA . New Delhi , India
How’s India doing with Corona? Interpret data as per your lens.
First case of the COVID 19 was reported on 30th January 2020 in India. As of 22nd July, number of daily new COVID cases touched the figure of 45,000 which is more than overall COVID cases of a country like Nigeria which is among 10 most populous countries in the world. However, is this the only criteria to infer how well India is responding to COVID 19. In the absence of concrete evaluation matrix, countries are mostly relying on some basic indicators like number of new cases per day, recovery rate, active cases, cases per million, tests per million. Interestingly, this is provisioning luxury to you of interpreting data as per your lens. If you believe India is doing well, you have good number of data sets to prove it. At the same time, if you think there is a critical scope of improvement, then also there are sufficient indicators. If we shortlist 8 critical indicators to evaluate the performance of a country for COVID response, we may have several interpretation. So lets shortlist few critical indicators like 1) Total number of COVID cases 2) Number of New cases per day 3) Number of Deaths 4) Cases per million population 5) testing per million population 6) recovery rate and 7) Deaths per million population. Now if we bifurcate disturbing indicators and inspiring indicators.
a. Total number of COVID cases: With more than 1200000 cases, India is third on highest number of cases in the world after US and Brazil.
b. Number of new cases per day: Another worrying factor is that graph of number of new cases per day is still going up with 45000 cases reported on 22nd July. This is among the top 3 countries the world.
c. Total number of deaths: India is behind only 6 countries in the world in terms of total number of deaths due to COVID with more than 29000 deaths.
d. Test per million: There is lot of emphasis on COVID testing to get insights from ground zero, however India ranked 136th in the world with 10,664 tests per 1 million population.
However that is not all. There are inspiring indicators which are justifying the hard work of COVID warriors in the country.
a. Cases per million population: India is second highest populated country in the world, however India ranked 103rd in the world with 898 cases per 1 million population. The other two worst affected countries USA and Brazil is on 10th and 14th rank respectively.
b. Recovery rate: Number of recovered cases in India is well above number of active cases, and that's India has a good recovery rate of above 60%.
c. Death per million population: India ranked 98th in the world with 22 deaths per 1 million population. The other two affected countries USA and Brazil is on 11th and 12th rank respectively.
We have sufficient data to appreciate, encourage and question the system, but what indicators to refer from non-aligned approach. Answer can be very simple if we understand that stress caused by COVID 19 makes us doubly vulnerable. So, its preferable to have faith on inspiring indicators and remain conscious of critical ones at the same time.
(Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/india-s-covid-19-recovery-rate-better-than-world-average-deaths-rise-120061800575_1.html, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/indias-covid-19-recovery-rate-improves-to-6293-health-ministry/article32058089.ece)