All publications of Prottoy Das . बोलपुर पश्चिम बंगाल , भारत

Economy after Covid-19

The world with a social biasness

Prottoy das

BA(HONS)in Economics and politics,

Visva Bharati University.

For the time being, we can assume that there can be two circumstances that can affect the economy in two different ways.

● There is an antidote situation.

● There is no antidote Situation.

More or less it’s pretty hard to write any final conclusions at this moment, when too many things may be yet to happen. But the time is very much right to start any discussion on how we can see the world economy after this pandemic. There are possible consequences of the crisis, including technological shift and a change in the direction and the volumes of trade flow all around the world. I think the impact will be much worse if the situation will walk under no cure situation. However, we could call it as a socially bias economic outbreak. The year 2020 has been a disaster for both consumers and producers no matter what they produce or consume. In fact, in future, it could be more ferocious if the states do not act as a market mechanic. The future circumstances of the pandemic will leed many messages across the world about its positive effect on the environment. Despite the short period reduction in the environmental impact, over the upcoming years, we can expect huge attention for population and environmental issues. Maybe an increase in environmentally oriented costs to maintain or prevent future disasters causing a drop in the standard of living. Consumers will get more conscious about there consumption patterns. So that the world will face a step back from the basic needs as outlined in the Maslow pyramid(Maslow’s hierarchy theory). Income inequality will appear to be increasing in the future and There will be opportunities for countries to come in front with new policies, ideas, implications to build a resilient economy which is both attractive and diversified to global sectors. But meanwhile, for the global society, The economic drama yet to happen.

Border closure, pandemic related lockdowns had brought a disaster for the countries who are dependent on foreign tourist or traders. According to the IMF’s recently released 2020 External Sector Report, Costa Rica, Greece, Morocco, Portugal, and Thailand could be among the hardest hit with losses in tourism proceeds exceeding 3 per cent of GDP.

A country’s current account balance is a measure of its total transactions, which includes but is not limited to trade in goods and services with the rest of the world. For some economies, a drop in tourism (which is considered an export) could have an impact on overall current account balances. Much is still unknown about the pace of tourism recovery in 2020. Peoples’ desire and ability to travel abroad may continue to face headwinds going into 2021 due to the ongoing pandemic, leaving an uncertain outlook for tourism industries in economies both big and small.

This is an alarming crisis with several unfamiliar features that lead us a self-inflicted economic catastrophe as a necessary policy response to contain its spread. A global depression Is here and we all know only optimism won’t slow it down. I am not talking about laagers. In these modern days, the U.S. and most of the world have well built middle-class generation. We have social safety nets that didn’t exist a couple of decades ago. thankfully, that’s also true even for the most developing countries. Most governments today accept a deep economic interdependence among nations created by decades of trade and investment globalization. But those expecting a so-called V-shaped economic recovery, a scenario in which vaccine makers will conquer COVID-19 and everybody go straight back to the working life, or even a smooth and steady longer-term bounce-back like the one that followed the global financial crisis a decade ago, are going to be disappointed. Bangladesh exemplifies the triple blow that many emerging market countries have suffered from COVID19: domestic slowdown caused by the disease and the efforts to contain its spread; a sharp decline in exports, particularly in the ready-made garment sector, and a drop in remittances. Three factors separate a true economic depression from a mere recession. First, the impact is global. Second, it cuts deeper into livelihoods than any recession we’ve faced in our lifetimes And third, its bad effects will remain longer. The situation in the global economy hasn’t been the same for all the countries. A country with high interdependence between trade and self-production system with diversified sources may recover within a certain time. Although most of the developing countries are now following the capitalistic path for an exit point from this current situation. It affects all the country throughout the world including Russia, Japan, India, and almost every one of the western countries. The fault lines between globalisation and uneven development have become more apparent. The economic rivalry between the United States and China, which began a long before the pandemic, will only intensify, the centre of gravity of this rivalry will increasingly shift towards the development of new technology. This rivalry will no longer be limited to the two largest economies in the world. Any rivalry between China and its competitors will make it even more difficult for countries that are economically dependent on China or the U.S. to make their choices. It has actually revealed the vulnerability of the global value of supply chains, for the reason nations will have to prepare for the changing nature of the global economy. For the time being a set of questions are circulating around human existence. Where India and Russia have to make difficult choices regarding their future plans. How is India realising its dream of becoming a $5 trillion economy? Does Russia believe that its economy, based on natural resources, will continue to deliver the desired results at the global level? How realistic is the possibility of a fundamental shift in global economic processes as a result of a pandemic? And what does this mean for multilateral economic institutions?

ONION DEPRESSION-BANGLADESH

A key cooking ingredient for poor & rich.

Prottoy das

BA(HONS) in Economics and politics.

Visva Bharati University.

My study on onion price hike showed me an inaccurate estimate of supply and demand in Bangladesh onion market which created the Fluctuations. But, is it that easy to elaborate? Estimation of demand and production of onion wrong, the government agencies fail to understand the gravity of the problem had forced the price of this key cooking ingredient up to a record high and hurt consumers. Prices of onion hit highest of all time around Tk 250 - 300 a kg in the final days of last year. Now it seems that there is a problem in „estimates‟ or „perception‟ in the market. If the government statistics in my case study were correct, such a crisis would not have happened. So, either supply of production is over-estimated or demand is underestimated in this case.

The estimate – Government data

It says that the annual domestic demand for onions 24 lakh tonnes and 23.76 lakh tonnes were produced in fiscal 2018-19. and, 30 per cent of the produce gets wasted naturally. Based on the (GOVT) data, there was adequate stock But, this production estimate maintained by the ministry is 25% higher than the estimate of BBS the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, the national statistical agency. The BBS estimated that onion production was 18.03 lakh tonnes in the last fiscal year.

With that, If the annual onion import, which is nearly 10 lakh tonnes, is considered, then the discrepancy in estimate becomes very much clear. C A B said annual demand for onion would be around 30 lakh(TN).

Let’s think another way, Consumers are now getting more rational and health conscious so that they are eating more vegetable and less rice. To do so, Demand for onion is rising as people are consuming more and more vegetables by eating less rice. so the market demand is changing. That‟s why the government should revise the estimates of demand and supply of essential commodities.

“The government‟s estimate on the annual domestic demand for onion might be underestimated. The annual demand for the item might be 30-33 lakh tonnes.

It seems that they did not pay adequate attention deriving estimate of demand. They could not understand the gravity of the situation. There might be some sort of complacence among officials and they did not take the issue seriously,” Said Economist Zahid Hussain. Also fueled by the export ban slapped by India. On September 2019, India set the minimum export price to curb its shipments and help bring down soaring prices in the domestic market. Two weeks later, it announced a ban on exports with immediate effect, after extended Monsoon downpours delayed harvests and supplies shrivelled(Newspaper). Is it something new or unpredictable for Bangladesh? The answer is "no". India‟s move to restrict the export of essential commodities like an onion is not new. We had an experience regarding rice in 2008 when India restricted shipments. that caused price jumping in Bangladeshi market. And the lessons were? For faster recovery, we have to keep diversified sources open. Because when it is necessary there have to have a contingency planning in advance. So prediction in terms of balancing the market is very important. In my ongoing study of “Fluctuations in different essential commodities”, I found out that 50% of the market has been destroyed by the political business syndicates. How? Market monitoring does not mean policing. The government should assume the role of a facilitator so that adequate information flows in the market to help the market function properly. Develop a policy and maintain it. Also easing procedures for imports and exports to facilitate faster trade and measures to increase the yield of onions and developing storage facilities to reduce post-harvest loss. We have to develop our national capacity to produce our foods. We will not require imports if we could properly stock and increase yield.

What about the creation of an open database on demand and supply of essential commodities?

A hike in onion price affects the poor. I found no alternative but to monitor the onion market regularly. If Bangladeshi markets largely depended on Indian onion, the government should have followed the onion production trend in India a long time ago and taken steps accordingly. The government should forecast local cultivation and production in the coming seasons and discourage imports so that farmers do not incur losses in the event of ample supply of the perishable. But without collecting the data from the field, It can‟t be done. So, for the communication gap, Farmers hardly get into knowledge about market demand and price. This is where farmers get caught into some corrupted invisible hands.

CASE STORY – Khatunganj (Newspaper)

I have found a case at Khatunganj that describes as follows,“ Some Locals said rotten onion is being thrown away every day here. The onion had been stored by wholesalers who tried to cash in on the high demand for the common kitchen item in Bangladesh”. Onion traders believe that the crop was a little rotten when it entered Bangladesh and decomposed more after being stored in the warehouses. Lots of rotten onions were seen dumped into the canal in Firingi Bazar Bridge Ghat area. Some local youths were seen sorting out the better quality onion from there.

Some newspapers said they were selling the half-rotten onion at Tk 40-50 per kg during that period. There was some good initiative from the Government. For faster export, Taxation was taken off from the onion. This step perhaps cured the moment for a little bit. But, the power of that is something invisible and corrupted played the market. Maybe there is enough stock of onion but they are not being released to the markets. Syndicates of importers and various groups in different areas are causing an unusual hike in onion prices.

Economic conflicts over the South China sea

Prottoy Das

BA(HONS)in Economics and politics,

Visva Bharati University.

It’s important as tensions rise in the South China Sea, we need to understand how this complexity began and what international law says about freedom of navigation and competing for maritime claims in the waters. The view we have for the last couple of decades is not that much clear one, in fact, In 1982, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea was adopted and signed, formalising extended maritime resource claims in international law. At this time, no fewer than six states had laid claim to the disputed Paracel and Spratly islands in the South China Sea. Since then, it has been a creeping militarisation of the waters by nations seeking to secure extended maritime resource zones. In 2009, Vietnam began reclaiming land around some of the 48 small islands it had occupied since the 1970s. On the other hand with a vital response, China began its much larger reclamations on submerged features it first began to occupy in the 1980s. By around 2016, these reclamations had resulted in three military-grade, mid-ocean airfields that sent shockwaves around the world, provoked in part by China breaking its own pledge not to militarise the islands. So what brings all these countries so much despair about this conflict? The answer is simple. The South China Sea is a marginal sea of the Western Pacific Ocean. It is bounded in the north by the shores of South China, in the west by the Indochinese Peninsula, in the east by the islands of Taiwan and northwestern Philippines (mainly Luzon, Mindoro and Palawan), and in the south by Borneo, eastern Sumatra and the Bangka Belitung Islands, encompassing an area of around 3,500,000 km2. It communicates with the East China Sea via the Taiwan Strait, the Philippine Sea via the Luzon Strait, the Sulu Sea via the straits around Palawan, the Indian Ocean via the Strait of Malacca, and the Java Sea via the Karimata and Bangka Strait. The Gulf of Tonkin and Gulf of Thailand are both parts of the South China Sea, and its shallow waters south of the Natuna Sea. The South China Sea is a region of tremendous economic and geostrategic importance. One-third of the world's maritime shipping passes through it, carrying over USD $3 trillion in trade each year. Huge oil and natural gas reserves are believed to lie beneath its seabed. It also contains lucrative fisheries, which are crucial for the food security of millions in Southeast Asia. The South China Sea Islands, collectively comprising several archipelago clusters of mostly small uninhabited islands, islets (cays and shoals), reefs/atolls and seamounts numbering in the hundreds, are subject to competing claims of sovereignty by several countries. These claims are also reflected in the variety of names used for the islands and the sea. Japan and South Korea rely heavily on the South China Sea for their supply of fuels and raw materials and as an export route, although the availability of diversionary sea lanes bypassing the South China Sea provides non-littoral states with some flexibility in this regard. So it’s clear that the economic gateway for many countries is lying under the seabed of the south china sea. So geographically the sea plays a vital eco-political role here. The South China Sea has been a longstanding source of tension and distrust in the region Competing for claims of territorial sovereignty over islands for more than a couple of decades. The UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea), which was formed in 1982 and came into force in 1994, established a framework intended to balance the economic and security interests of coastal states with those of seafaring nations. UNCLOS enshrines the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), a 200 nautical mile area that extends sole exploitation rights to coastal nations over marine resources. However, this exclusive zone was never intended to serve as a security zone, UNCLOS also guarantees wide-ranging passage rights for naval vessels and military aircraft.

In 2010 spring, “PRC reportedly communicated to United State officials that the South China Sea was "an area of non-negotiable 'core interest', with Taiwan and Tibet on the national agenda. However, Beijing appears to have backed away from that assertion in 2011”. Again after a year and a half around 2012 October the PRC's Global Times newspaper, published by the Communist Party People's Daily group, editorialised on South China Sea territorial disputes under the banner "Don't take peaceful approach for granted". The article referenced incidents earlier that year involving the Philippines and South Korea detaining PRC fishing boats in the region. "If these countries don't want to change their ways with China, they will need to prepare for the sounds of cannons. We need to be ready for that, as it may be the only way for the disputes in the sea to be resolved.

In the bigger context, a BBC journalist writes, “the Trump administration has pledged to overturn what it says is 40 years of policy failure concerning China. Washington has recently criticised Beijing on issues ranging from its handling of the coronavirus pandemic to human rights violations against Muslim minorities in Xinjiang and how it has dealt with pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. But it was China's land reclamation projects in the South China Sea that prompted the rest of the world to reassess Beijing's international ambitions. And the stakes in the region are incredibly high. In these seemingly insignificant island chains and reefs, there are growing risks of military conflict between the world's two most powerful countries”.(Zhaoyin Feng, BBC Chinese)